This year’s
capacity growth will be the lowest ever recorded for the global container
shipping fleet, according to Alphaliner, welcome news for an industry already
buried under a deluge of excess vessels that cannot be filled.
The analyst expects
the fleet capacity to grow by 4.6 percent in 2016, with fewer new buildings and
a rising level of scrapping. This combination of fewer deliveries and greater
numbers of ships being demolished will add less than 1 million
20-foot-equivalent units to the global fleet.
In percentage
terms, fleet growth is lower than the previously smallest year-over-year rate
of 5.5 percent recorded in 2009 and well below the 10.3 percent average annual
growth rate recorded since 1990.
The record low
fleet growth follows last year’s record high when 1.72 million TEUs of capacity
were delivered. Deliveries this year are expected to reach 1.25 million TEUs,
but Alphaliner noted that continued slow demand could see owners delaying some
deliveries or even cancelling some orders altogether, particularly at
financially troubled yards. Scrapping and other deletions is expected to
account for about 350,000 TEUs.
Yet even with the
moderating capacity growth, Alphaliner said the supply-demand equation remained
heavily imbalanced because of the surplus ships carried over from 2015 and weak
cargo demand growth.
“Any positive
impact of the lower fleet growth, as far as a market equilibrium is concerned,
would only become apparent if the capacity overhang were cleared,” the analyst
wrote in its weekly newsletter.
“With the current
idle container ship fleet running at 1.35 million TEUs, or 6.8 percent of the
total fleet, it would require a few more years of low fleet growth before the
supply-demand imbalance recedes.”
There is little
sign of action on the demand side. The traditional surge in volumes in the few
weeks before Chinese New Year has yet to happen with just two weeks until the
long holidays begin. A planned Jan. 15 general rate increase looks like it was
scrapped by the carriers and spot rates on Asia-Europe were down 21 percent
last week.
Compared to last
year, Asia-U.S. West Coast spot prices last week were down more than 30 percent
and rates to the East Coast were 44 percent below the same week last year.
“There are no signs
of any strong market demand during the pre-holiday period, with carriers
starting to cut spot freight rates from China again, giving up part of the
gains achieved from the Jan. 1 general
rate increases,” Alphaliner said.
Source: joc.com.
22 January 2016
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