BIMCO says its hopes for an industry bounce-back in 2016 are waning,
and has warned shipping it should "brace itself" for another
challenging year.
China's unpredictable and changing economy was a particular cause for
concern, the organisation said, and that as the country "re-evaluates its
future growth and direction, the shipping industry can expect an uncertain and
lower level of support from one of the most important drivers of shipping demand
growth in recent times."
"The dry bulk market experienced a troublesome 2015," BIMCO
noted, and indeed as Ship & Bunker has previously reported the sector's
main barometer, the Baltic Dry Index, recorded fresh all time lows on several
occasions throughout 2015 and last year bottomed at 471 in mid-December.
It has fallen to a fresh all time low of 468 since then.
However, helped by an anticipated record high level of vessel scrapping
in 2016, BIMCO says it expects dry bulk supply to only grow by about 2 percent
this year, while demand remains level.
The container segment also had a tough 2015 thanks to the all too
familiar story of market imbalance.
Last year he supply-side rose to a four-year high, while the
demand-side growth rate hit a three-year low, BIMCO noted.
One positive for 2016 is that, while 2015 was said to have seen a
record for new capacity entering the market, "2016 is set for a much lower
influx at around 3.5%."
"What remains crucial for the industry is to improve the
fundamental market balance in 2016. As the lower 'new normal' GDP-to-trade multiplier
limits the potential upside of the demand-side, careful management of deployed
capacity by the individual operators is still of utmost importance," BIMCO
said.
Extraordinarily Strong
Tanker owners were some of the few who faired well last year, and BIMCO
noted the sector experienced "extraordinarily strong freight market
throughout 2015" thanks to the dramatic collapse in oil prices.
"It was the best year for all oil tankers since the market crashed
in late 2008," said BIMCO.
However the organisation warns that a significant building of oil
stocks in 2015 may slow tanker demand growth in 2016.
And while the eventual return to the crude oil export market for Iran
this year is expectd to disrupt current trade patterns, BIMCO does not expect
that to result in higher tanker demand.
On the supply side, the segment is expected to see fleet growth of
around 4.5 percent in 2016, but BIMCO says this is unlikely to be matched by
demand-side growth.
"We expect similar market conditions to develop for oil product
tankers, with supply-side growth staying high while the demand-side is likely
to soften after the winter market," the organisation said.
Last month BIMCO noted that newbulding activity in the dry bulk market
remains extremely subdued, despite prices for new ships hitting their lowest
level in over a decade.
Source: ship and bunker. 7 January 2016
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