Demolition sales of dry bulk carriers have increased
sharply this year despite low price of steel, which brings a ray of hope to a
struggling dry bulk market in which asset prices remain under downward
pressure, shipping analysts said.
In the first four months of this year, 52 Capesize
vessels with a combined tonnage of 8.7 million dwt have been sold for
scrapping, twice the figure of 25 units and 4.2 million dwt in the whole year
2014, noted Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO in Denmark.
"Scrap prices are under pressure from a general
diminishing demand for steel in addition to cheap steel coming out of
China," Sand said in a market report emailed to IHS Maritime. "With
low scrap prices, currently around USD370 per light displacement ton [LDT]
owners are more reluctant to let go of their ships despite being pressured from
poor freight market conditions. However, data from the first four months of
2015 shows that more owners are scrapping their ships than ever before. The
numbers are hastily approaching the level of 2012 where a record total of 70
Capesize ships where scrapped."
By contrast, during 2014 bulk carriers of all types
equalling only 16 million dwt were sold for demolition, down from more than 23
million dwt in 2013. "Since the beginning of 2015 demolition has gone up
for all of the ship sizes within the dry bulk segment, with Capesizes carrying
the lion's share," he said.
"The high amount of Capesize demolition will
benefit the segment. Although increasing scrapping was expected the actual
development exceeded BIMCO's expectations. This could have a positive impact on
the market. The increase in Capesize scrapping comes at a much needed time for
the market. Looking at the development so far this year the fleet growth has
actually been negative, with a reduction of 0.8 %."
The demolition of Panamax ships has also been on the
rise in 2015, and although the development is not quite on par with the
Capesizes it is still substantial. In 2015 as much as 2.6 million dwt has
already been sold for demolition equalling more than half of last year's total
where 4.8 million dwt were scrapped.
For Handymax and Handysize demolition has also
increased in 2015. For Handymax more than 1 million dwt of tonnage has been
scrapped so far in 2015, 34% more than in the same period last year. For Handysize
the numbers are 2.2 million dwt so far, up 79% from last year.
However, the picture remains gloomy when it comes to
valuation of second hand tonnage, according to Erik Nikolai Stavseth and Kurt
Waldeland, shipping analysts at Arctic in Oslo. "Recent transactions in
the dry bulk S&P market point to a further decline in vessel values, with
the latest reported sale indicating a price noticeably below the latest data
point. According to shipbrokers, the 2010 built Capesize Blue Everest has been
sold to Greek buyers for USD27.2 million. This is close to 15% below our last
estimate for a five-year-old Capesize," they said.
"The recent transaction illustrates the steep
drop in dry bulk vessel values over the last few months. In the second half
last year, the two 2010-built Capesizes ER Brazil and ER Beilun fetched
USD49.25 million each - pointing to a 45% drop over seven months. While we fail
to see any near-term triggers for the dry bulk market, we see limited downside
to vessel values at this point. However, the market is still dependent on a
recovery in freight rates to support vessel values going forward."
Source: his maritime
360. 11 May 2015
No comments:
Post a Comment