A
strange phenomenon emerged this week in the Indian sub- continent ship
recvcling markets. Cash buyers seemingly created a market all of their own, far
detached from the local realities and pricings of the markets on the ground.
Some
truly exceptional numbers were seen on available tonnage and rumors began to
spread through the ship owning communities on the sorts of prices available.
Yet, mere was little substance to back up all of the hot talk. For all that
cash buyers began competing amongst themselves, there was bemusement in local
sub-continent markets as prices ascended to heights of USD 1O to USD 15/LT and
(reportedly) even 20 USD/LT LDT away from what local plate prices and
currencies could justify.
A
lot of the fuss seemed to surround India and the noteworthy recovery it had
made, both on the currency front and in terms of local steel plate prices
(which appear to have settled somewhat). Having nearly touched the dreaded Rs.
70 against the U.S. Dollar last month, the currency is trading down at a far
more respectable Rs. 61.07 at the close of the week, to hearten many end buyers
who had started to fear for their very livelihoods only one month before.
However,
there was simply no justifying cash buyer acquisition at or above the 450/LT
LDT mark on containers and tankers. It is a highly speculative position to take
by certain buyers, especially given the volatility experienced in all markets
so far this year. Should prices not perform as hoped for, expect the games to
begin on the shorefront. The fact that both Pakistan and Bangladesh will be off
on Eid holidays from next week makes such speculation even stranger
China
finally emerged from the National October holidays in a weaker position, with
few (if any) new purchases to mention, given the growing gap between the
sub-continent markets. Their hand will have to strengthen if they are to
maintain their market share in this last quarter of 2013.
For
week 41 of 2013, GMS demo rankings for the week are as below:
|
Country
|
Market Sentiment
|
CARGO Prices
|
TANKER Prices
|
|
India
|
Bullish
|
USD 395/lt ldt
|
USD 425/lt ldt
|
|
Bangladesh
|
Cautious
|
USD 390/ltldt
|
USD 420/ltldt
|
|
Pakistan
|
Cautious
|
USD 385/lt ldt
|
USD 415/lt ldt
|
|
China
|
Cautious
|
USD 340/lt ldt
|
USD 350/lt ldt
|
Source:
GMS Weekly. 15 October 2013
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