A
jarring last few weeks in India has filtered through to competing markets in
the subcontinent, to present a much weaker and fragile summer sentiment across
the board. One of the early indicators for the lull currently being endured may
have been the Chinese market, which has been in the doldrums for some months already
with Chinese end buyers struggling to compete and even shift any of the
inventory from their yards.
As
such, lower overall levels from China of late, have seemingly become key
indicators for an impending malaise elsewhere. For their part so far, considering
the overall dithered sentiment, markets across the Indian sub-continent have
managed to hold up comparatively well, staving about USD 100/LT LDT ahead of
their Chinese competition.
However,
is a further fall still coming the way of the markets in the sub-continent
remains to be seen.
As
week 27 ended, there emerged signs of life in Bangladesh as more enquiries
started to emerge for the right tonnage, albeit at far more subdued levels than
before. The facts are that prices have come off by at least USD 25/LT LDT, with
most standard dry vessels selling well below USD 400/LT LDT, and wet
vessels/containers fetching into the low USD 400s/LT LDT, not only in
Bangladesh, but also across the sub-continent overall.
The
Indian Rupee has remained one of the chief culprits for the current slide, with
an unprecedented and historical level of excess INR 60 to the US Dollar,
witnessed for a greater part of the last few weeks.
Due
to the fluctuations alone, nearly 15% has been lost from end buyer inventories
secured in 2013 so far, as many end buyers are either in panic mode, or simply
refusing to offer on any tonnage, until a greater semblance of stability is
seen.
With
budgets having long passed in both Pakistan and Bangladesh and no positive
reaction seen thus far, this new reality on levels appears to be set to last
for the summer, until the arrival of the next upward swing - possibly in the
4th quarter of the year?
For
week 27 of 2013, GMS demo rankings for the week are as below:
|
Country
|
Market Sentiment
|
GEN CARGO Prices
|
TANKER Prices
|
|
Bangladesh
|
Weak
|
USD
390/ltldt
|
USD
420/ltldt
|
|
Pakistan
|
Weak
|
USD
390/ltldt
|
USD
420/ltldt
|
|
India
|
Weak
|
USD
385/ltldt
|
USD
415/ltldt
|
|
China
|
Weak
|
USD
310/ltldt
|
USD
320/ltldt
|
Source: steel guru. 11 July 2013
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