24 November 2011

GMS weekly report on INDIAN shipbreaking industry for WEEK 46 of 2011:

Ø    Few signs of improvement
Ø    Unexpected money on offer for tonnage
Ø    Conflicting fundamentals making matters worse

Lurching Ever Lower!

Indian sentiment showed few signs of picking up this week as the slide towards the mid 400s/LT LDT on dry units continued. To that end, the market saw several cash buyers making bizarre decisions as offers were made at seemingly impossible levels this week. Evidently, a few Cash Buyers continued to ride the wave of optimism, confident that a market rebound may be in order, perhaps sooner than most anticipated.

Unfortunately, the state of Indian market remains in shambles and such gung-ho levels on offer, do not appear to be backed by end users within the local market.

So what remains in store for India? Where does the ongoing decline level off?

Surprisingly, 2 of the key local fundamentals have been at odds with one another and have been performing at opposite ends. The local steel plate price this week steadied off and even showed marginal signs of improvement, but that did little to boost local confidence as the Indian Rupee continued its disastrous tumble against the US Dollar (hitting a possible all time record low).

As such, the already nervous local sentiment that was struggling to cope with a rapid decline over the recent past, did not manage to find any faith in a level off (via the steel prices) and the offers for ships continued to drop - and even withdrawn in many cases. This has made it extremely difficult to peg exactly where levels for tonnage really stand.

While the prevailing pessimism has yielded fears of a further drop in the Indian Rupee during the coming week, we do hope for a bounce back (be it marginal), just so business can continue as usual in Alang.

Source: Hellenic Shipping News (Sourced from GMS Weekly). 22 November 2011

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