This year is on track to be the second largest 12 months
for dirty tanker deliveries on record, behind 2009, according to an industry
note from McQuilling Services.
Through the first 10 months of the year, the consultancy
recorded 133 DPP tankers entering the market, compared to 84 over the same
period in 2016. At the same time, 54 vessels exited the trading fleet, bringing
the net growth to 79 ships year-to-date (end October).
This represents an acceleration of deletions when
compared on a year-on-year basis to both 2016 and 2015.
Over the final two months of 2017, McQuilling expected
another 32 DPP vessels to join the fleet, while four are on track to be
removed. In total, the DPP fleet is expected to grow by 104 vessels or 4.6% in
2017, representing the highest year of growth on a net basis since at least
2000.
Within the VLCC sector, 44 vessels have hit the water,
while about 22 were removed from the trading fleet. The average age of the
departing ships was 19.7 years. The deletion activity was evenly split with 11
vessels sold for demolition and 11 converted to storage operations.
Through the remainder of this year, nine more VLCCs are
set to join the fleet, while just one is
likely to be removed.
The Suezmax fleet has experienced the greatest net growth
year-to-date with 52 additions and 11 deletions, or a net total of 42 ships.
Frontline and Anangel Shipping were major contributors taking delivery of six
and four Suezmaxes, respectively.
Regarding those vessels removed from the fleet, the
average age was 21.4 years and just one ship , ‘Front Ardenne’ was sold for
conversion, while the remaining vessels were sold for demolition. The last two
months of 2017 are expected to bring 12 more ships into the market, while one
vessel is projected to be deleted.
Turning to dirty Aframaxes, 33 vessels have joined the
fleet, while 19 were removed since the beginning of the year. On a net basis,
McQuilling forecast another nine vessels will join the fleet before the end of
this year, which would meet its full year expectations of 44 additions and 21
deletions. The 2017 expectations for Panamax fleet growth were fulfilled with
three more ships on the water this year, while two were sold for demolition.
Regarding the clean segment, 64 tankers were added to the
fleet, while just 16 ships exited, resulting in a net growth of 48 units
year-to-date. Over the same period last year, net fleet growth was 38 vessels
with 48 additions and just 10 deletions.
Full year fleet growth is likely to remain above the 2016
figures, as another 26 deliveries and 12 deletions are expected through the
final two months of 2017.
LR fleet growth has also trended above last year’s
figures with 43 additions and four deletions year-to-date, a net growth of 39
vessels, which compares to 37 over the same period of 2016.
Of the 43 deliveries this year, 30 have been LR2s and 13
were LR1s, while the four deletions have been split evenly between the two
sectors. Over the November/December period, another nine LR2s will join the
fleet and three will exit, while the LR1 fleet is on track to add another six
vessels.
As for MRs (excluding chemical tankers), a net fleet
growth of 11 ships is forecast, as MR2s expand by 14 units, while the MR1 fleet
is on track to fall by three units this year. Some 18 MR2s were delivered
year-to-date, while 10 ships were reported sold for demolition or conversion.
Over the same period, three MR1s were delivered and two exited; however,
McQuilling said it expected another four to be removed before the year ends.
Year-to-date, 165 tanker orders were placed with 54%
being in the DPP segment. The VLCC sector saw 47 vessels ordered through the
first 10 months of 2017, which is more than double seen over the whole of 2016
(21 vessels).
For Suezmaxes, 18 vessels were contracted, including12
taken by the Chinese Bank of Communications. Newbuild contracting in the
Aframax sector also remained healthy with 25 orders through October, compared
to 23 orders placed in the whole of 2016.
On the clean side, 12 LR2s were ordered, while no
activity was witnessed in the LR1 newbuilding market year-to-date. Most of the
clean ordering activity involved MRs with 52 MR2s and 11 MR1s contracted, which
compares to 45 over the whole of 2016.
October was an interesting month, as no vessels
>27,500 dwt from the DPP and CPP sectors were ordered. McQuilling said that
we have not seen the end of newbuild contracting for this year with a potential
to increase over the winter months, on the back of historically low asset
prices, which presents attractive investment opportunities, as well as upcoming
regulatory constraints.
The consultancy also forecast that in 2018, there is
likely to be a slowdown in average inventory net fleet growth to 3.3% for the
DPP sector, with 139 deliveries and 103 deletions projected; however, this is
still well above the historical average of 2.3%.
On this basis, freight rate weakness is likely to persist
next year, as supply growth out paces demand. Beyond this point, an accelerated
deletion profile is on track to negatively pressure fleet growth further,
dropping to 1.6% in 2019, helping to re-balance markets, McQuilling said.
For the CPP sector, average net fleet growth, this year,
is on track to remain relatively flat when compared to 2015/2016, at 2.5%. In
concert with the DPP sector, net fleet growth is forecast to fall beyond 2017
as higher deletions are forecast on the back of an ageing MR fleet.
In 2018, net fleet growth is projected at 1.3%, the
lowest level seen since 2002, which is on track to provide some upward pressure
for freight rates.
Additional support will stem
from a significant decline in the growth of the chemical tanker fleet, which is
projected to expand by 5.1% in 2018, well below the historical average of
11.9%. This comes after 10.4% growth projected for this year, McQuilling
concluded.
Source: tanker
operator. 24 November 2017
No comments:
Post a Comment